Why Quantifying Risk vs. Opportunity is Different...And Why It Matters. The Internal Side of Public Affairs (40)

Alan Hardacre, PhD

Co-Founder Advocacy Academy, Advocacy Strategy

How you quantify a Public Affairs risk is very different from how you quantify a Public Affairs opportunity. How you approach these two aspects of your Public Affairs work will shape how your function is seen in your organisation. So, here’s what I’ve learned:

The Quantification of Avoided Loss

When you’re managing a crisis — a regulatory threat, an activist campaign, a market access delay — the quantification lens is often about costs avoided:

·      Revenue preserved

·      Fines or penalties prevented

·      Operational disruption avoided

·      Deadlines pushed to future dates

These are powerful outcomes and they can have significant numbers attached to them. They can also help you explain why Public Affairs matters. But there’s a catch — the value fades fast. When a crisis is averted, your organisation moves on. The value of your work is real, but in tangible and short-lived. You need to both accept and work with this .

Opportunities Are Where Long-Term Value Lives

The real breakthrough moments for Public Affairs leaders come when Public Affairs helps the business win:

·      New markets opened through public affairs influence

·      Faster product approvals

·      Improved cost-margin structures through policy change

·      Tax or trade adjustments with direct P&L impact

These are the moments that get remembered. These are what make it easier to justify resources, headcount, and a seat at the strategy table. I know that most Public Affairs teams find themselves in a catch-22 situation here. They barely have enough resource to manage the risks – let alone pursue the opportunities that could unlock more resources. These opportunities take time, foresight, and proactive investment. How to solve this conundrum? You could consider building a dual-track approach:

·      Track and report your risk management work with clarity and speed — even if it’s short-lived

·      Identify one or two proactive opportunities where Public Affairs can directly shape the bottom line

·      Quantify both — and use the contrast to show the full spectrum of value your team delivers

What you will see is that managing risk earns gratitude and delivering opportunity earns investment. If you’re only communicating and/or doing one, you’re missing half the story.