Politics, Not Technology, Keeps Changing the World Around Us

Paul Shotton, PhD

Co-Founder, Advocacy Strategy & Advocacy Academy

We talk endlessly about technology. But it’s politics that keeps changing the world around us.

Janan Ganesh made this point brilliantly in a recent Financial Times column, arguing that political change is now outpacing technological change. Inflation, war, populism, and trade fragmentation have disrupted business far more directly than AI ever has.

And yet, in public affairs, we still tend to treat political volatility as something to monitor, not manage. We build dashboards, track issues, maintain relationships — but rarely stop to ask: what if the system itself shifts beneath our feet?

The Uncomfortable Truth: Political Change Moves Faster Than Innovation

Ganesh’s argument resonates deeply with anyone working at the interface of politics and business. Over the past two decades, we’ve been conditioned to see technological innovation as the primary driver of change. But the events that have shaken our economies, redefined markets, and reshaped global alliances have all been political — from the Ukraine war and inflationary shocks to the rise of populism and trade fragmentation.

Public affairs functions, meanwhile, often stay in the comfort zone of stakeholder management. We focus on relationship maintenance, not on structured political risk analysis. The result: organisations that react to political disruption instead of anticipating it.

Exploring Scenario Planning: From Curiosity to Practice

A few years ago, I became fascinated by scenario planning — how to help people think clearly about the future under uncertainty. I began developing scenario-based exercises both for professional teams and for higher-level graduate students.

In that search, I came across the European Commission’s Scenario Exploration System (SES), a foresight framework developed by the Joint Research Centre (JRC). The JRC team were generous: they walked me through their different versions of the SES, each customised for specific policy areas and Directorates-General.

I was struck by how adaptable and practical the framework was. It wasn’t about predicting the future — it was about structuring conversations around uncertainty, forcing teams to make decisions in different futures, and building the muscle for long-term thinking.

I took the shared materials home and built my own hands-on board-game version of the SES. Watching participants use it was eye-opening: uncertainty became tangible, and strategy suddenly became personal. Teams started seeing the link between today’s advocacy work and tomorrow’s political realities. They weren’t just discussing risks — they were experiencing them.

Public Affairs as Strategic Risk Leadership

Ganesh points out that even tech titans like Elon Musk have turned toward politics because, as he puts it, “that’s where the action is.” When innovation leaders step into politics, it’s a tacit admission that political power shapes the real economy more profoundly than technological breakthroughs.

If that’s true, then public affairs must evolve too. It can no longer be seen as a communications or networking function — it must become an organisational risk leadership function. That means embedding structured foresight and scenario analysis into how we plan, prioritise, and advise leadership.

Boards have digital transformation roadmaps; few have political risk frameworks. That imbalance is no longer sustainable.

Building the Capacity for Political Foresight

Structured foresight tools like the Scenario Exploration System show how public affairs can lead this change. They make abstract risks concrete and help leadership teams practise decision-making in turbulent environments.

Political foresight doesn’t remove uncertainty — it builds the capacity to work with it.

That’s the shift our profession needs: from monitoring politics to managing its consequences.

A Question for Public Affairs Leaders

Ganesh warns against “futurologists who don’t major overwhelmingly on politics.” The same warning applies to us.

So here’s the question:

Do your public affairs and leadership teams have structured processes for scenario planning and political foresight — or are we all still using technology as our own coping mechanism?